View source for Horizon scanning

{{Short description|Methodology in futures studies}}
{{other uses}}
{{Other uses of|HS|HS (disambiguation)}}
{{Futures studies}}
'''Horizon scanning''' (HS) or '''horizon scan''' is a method from [[futures studies]], sometimes regarded as a part of [[Foresight (futures studies)|foresight]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Cuhls |first1=Kerstin E. |title=Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game |journal=Futures & Foresight Science |date=2020 |volume=2 |issue=1 |pages=e23 |doi=10.1002/ffo2.23 |language=en |issn=2573-5152|doi-access=free }}</ref> It is the early detection and assessment of [[emerging technologies]] or threats for mainly [[policy|policy makers]] in a domain of choice.<ref name=biosecurity>{{cite news |title=Continuity Central |url=https://www.continuitycentral.com/index.php/news/resilience-news/5930-experts-horizon-scan-to-help-create-a-risk-map-of-major-emerging-biosecurity-threats |access-date=25 February 2021 |work=www.continuitycentral.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sutherland |first1=William J. |last2=Aveling |first2=Rosalind |last3=Brooks |first3=Thomas M. |last4=Clout |first4=Mick |last5=Dicks |first5=Lynn V. |last6=Fellman |first6=Liz |last7=Fleishman |first7=Erica |last8=Gibbons |first8=David W. |last9=Keim |first9=Brandon |last10=Lickorish |first10=Fiona |last11=Monk |first11=Kathryn A. |last12=Mortimer |first12=Diana |last13=Peck |first13=Lloyd S. |last14=Pretty |first14=Jules |last15=Rockström |first15=Johan |last16=Rodríguez |first16=Jon Paul |last17=Smith |first17=Rebecca K. |last18=Spalding |first18=Mark D. |last19=Tonneijck |first19=Femke H. |last20=Watkinson |first20=Andrew R. |display-authors=3 |title=A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014 |journal=Trends in Ecology & Evolution |date=January 2014 |volume=29 |issue=1 |pages=15–22 |doi=10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004|pmid=24332318 |pmc=3884124 |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Smith |first1=J |last2=Ward |first2=D |last3=Michaelides |first3=M |last4=Moore |first4=A T |last5=Simpson |first5=S |display-authors=3 |title=New and emerging technologies for the treatment of inherited retinal diseases: a horizon scanning review |journal=Eye |date=September 2015 |volume=29 |issue=9 |pages=1131–1140 |doi=10.1038/eye.2015.115|pmid=26113499 |pmc=4565944 |doi-access=free }}</ref> Such domains include agriculture,<ref>{{cite book |title=Text Mining for Horizon Scanning: An Insight Into Agricultural Research and Innovation in Africa |year=2020 |publisher=Publications Office of the European Union |isbn=978-92-76-21446-5 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=DsQXzgEACAAJ |language=en}}</ref> environmental studies,<ref name=theneed>{{cite journal |last1=Sutherland |first1=William J. |last2=Woodroof |first2=Harry J. |title=The need for environmental horizon scanning |journal=Trends in Ecology & Evolution |date=1 October 2009 |volume=24 |issue=10 |pages=523–527 |doi=10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.008 |pmid=19660827 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534709001888 |language=en |issn=0169-5347}}</ref> health care,<ref name=healthcare/> [[biosecurity]],<ref name=biosecurity/> and [[food safety]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Horizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety |url=http://www.fao.org/3/i4061e/i4061e.pdf |publisher=FAO |access-date=25 February 2021}}</ref>

Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for [[environmental scanning]] (ES),<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Schultz |first1=Wendy L. |title=The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence‐based policy context |journal=Foresight |date=1 January 2006 |volume=8 |issue=4 |pages=3–12 |doi=10.1108/14636680610681996 |url=https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636680610681996/full/html |issn=1463-6689}}</ref> or view HS as a subset of ES,<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Miles |first1=Ian |last2=Saritas |first2=Ozcan |title=The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons |journal=Foresight |date=2 November 2012 |volume=14 |issue=6 |pages=530–545 |doi=10.1108/14636681211284953}}</ref> or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=van Rij |first1=Victor |title=Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge |journal=Science and Public Policy |date=1 February 2010 |volume=37 |issue=1 |pages=7–18 |doi=10.3152/030234210X484801 |url=https://academic.oup.com/spp/article-abstract/37/1/7/1656872 |language=en |issn=0302-3427}}</ref> In summary, ES has key differences to HS.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals' |journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change |date=1 December 2017 |volume=125 |pages=224–235 |doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.001 |language=en |issn=0040-1625|doi-access=free |last1=Rowe |first1=Emily |last2=Wright |first2=George |last3=Derbyshire |first3=James }}</ref> ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Choo |first1=Chun Wei |title=Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment |year=2002 |publisher=Information Today, Inc. |isbn=978-1-57387-125-9 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=IDlDwy9UfmsC |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Miles |first1=Ian |last2=Saritas |first2=Ozcan |title=The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons |journal=Foresight |date=2 November 2012 |volume=14 |issue=6 |pages=530–545 |doi=10.1108/14636681211284953 |language=en |issn=1463-6689}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Ramírez |first1=Rafael |last2=Selsky |first2=John W. |title=Strategic Planning in Turbulent Environments: A Social Ecology Approach to Scenarios |journal=Long Range Planning |date=February 2016 |volume=49 |issue=1 |pages=90–102 |doi=10.1016/j.lrp.2014.09.002 |language=en}}</ref>

==Etymology==
One of the first usages of the term ''horizon scanning'' as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in [[information technology]] and forecasting the year 2005.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Gates |first1=William H. |title=Horizon Scanning: Opportunities Technology Will Bring by 2005 |journal=Journal of Business Strategy |date=1 January 1995 |volume=16 |issue=1 |pages=19–21 |doi=10.1108/eb039676 |url=https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/eb039676/full/html |issn=0275-6668}}</ref> Then, ''horizon scanning'' was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European workshop in September 1997, whose participants were 27 policy makers and researchers from 12 countries.<ref name=healthcare>{{cite journal |last1=Carlsson |first1=P. |last2=Jørgensen |first2=T. |title=Scanning the horizon for emerging health technologies. Conclusions from a European Workshop |journal=International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care |date=1998 |volume=14 |issue=4 |pages=695–704 |doi=10.1017/s0266462300012010 |pmid=9885460 |s2cid=1184587 |url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9885460/ |issn=0266-4623}}</ref> This workshop was organized as a part of the European [[health technology assessment]] project (HTA).<ref name=healthcare/> Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning.<ref name=healthcare/>

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+ Definitions of Horizon Scanning
|-
! Year !! Source !! Definition
|-
| 2002 || [[Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs]] ||
Horizon scanning is "the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning’ and, continuing, horizon scanning ‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Könnölä |first1=Totti |last2=Salo |first2=Ahti |last3=Cagnin |first3=Cristiano |last4=Carabias |first4=Vicente |last5=Vilkkumaa |first5=Eeva |display-authors=3 |title=Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning |journal=Science and Public Policy |date=1 March 2012 |volume=39 |issue=2 |pages=222–231 |doi=10.1093/scipol/scs021|hdl=11475/8386 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
|-
| 2004 || UK Government's [[Government Chief Scientific Adviser (United Kingdom)|Chief Scientific Advisor]]'s Committee || "Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments including – but not restricted to – those that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Palomino |first1=Marco A. |last2=Bardsley |first2=Sarah |last3=Bown |first3=Kevin |last4=De Lurio |first4=Jennifer |last5=Ellwood |first5=Peter |last6=Holland‐Smith |first6=David |last7=Huggins |first7=Bob |last8=Vincenti |first8=Alexandra |last9=Woodroof |first9=Harry |last10=Owen |first10=Richard |display-authors=3 |title=Web‐based horizon scanning: concepts and practice |journal=Foresight |date=24 August 2012 |volume=14 |issue=5 |pages=355–373 |doi=10.1108/14636681211269851}}</ref>
|-
| 2015 || Report by [[Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI]], [[Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research]] and [[VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland]] for the [[European Commission]] || "Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments. These can be weak (or early) signals, trends, wild cards or other developments, persistent problems, risks and threats, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions."<ref>{{cite web |title=Models of Horizon Scanning How to integrate Horizon Scanning into European Research and Innovation Policies |url=https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/ccv/2015/Models-of-Horizon-Scanning.pdf |website=Fraunhofer ISI |date=2015 |access-date=26 February 2021}}</ref>
|-
|2019 || [[OECD]] ||
Horizon scanning is "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand."<ref>{{cite book |author=National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |title=HORIZON SCANNING AND FORESIGHT METHODS |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK556423/ |publisher=National Academies Press (US) |access-date=22 June 2021 |language=en |date=2020-01-14}}</ref>
|}

==Phases and techniques==
A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process:<ref name=hsofhs>{{cite book |last1=Sun |first1=F |last2=Schoelles |first2=K |title=AHRQ Health Care Horizon Scanning System A Systematic Review of Methods for Health Care Technology Horizon Scanning |date=2013 |url=https://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/horizon-scan_research-2013.pdf}}</ref>
*Identify the users of the HS products. 
*Estimate the time available for the HS effort. 
*Conduct HS, and identify emerging technologies that potentially affect targeted domain. 
*Filter the identified technologies by applying criteria for determining the relevance of the technologies to the HS effort. 
*Prioritize the technologies that have passed through the filtering process by applying criteria based on stakeholders’ requirements and needs. 
*[[Technology assessment|Assess technologies]] of high priority for the stakeholders, and predict their potential impacts targeted domain. 
*Use peer review to check for quality of the HS process and products. 
*Disseminate the HS products to the relevant audiences in a timely fashion. 
*Update the HS products on a regular basis or when a significant development occurs related to the technology.
Horizon scanning shares common methods with [[future-oriented technology analysis]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Eerola |first1=A. |last2=Miles |first2=I. |title=Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective |journal=Futures |date=1 April 2011 |volume=43 |issue=3 |pages=265–278 |doi=10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005 |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328710002697 |language=en |issn=0016-3287}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Tagiew |first1=Rustam |last2=Witzler |first2=Sebastian |last3=Portier |first3=Martin |title=Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility |date=14 July 2022 |url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4151745 |publisher=Social Science Research Network |ssrn=4151745 |language=en}}</ref> Horizon scanning includes following techniques:<ref name=theneed/><ref name=hsofhs/>
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Technique !! Example
|-
| [[Interview (research)|Interviews]] || Environmental Research Funders Forum Horizon Scanning Study<ref>{{cite web |title=An Environment Research Funders' Forum Report: Horizon Scanning Study |url=https://eravisions.archiv.zsi.at/stocktaking/30.html |website=ERA Visions | date=2007|access-date=7 March 2021}}</ref>
|-
| [[Issue tree]] || Foresight project on Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs<ref>{{cite web |title=Brain science, addiction and drugs |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/brain-science-addiction-and-drugs |website=GOV.UK |access-date=7 March 2021 |date=2005}}</ref>
|-
| [[Systematic review|Literature searches and state-of-science reviews]] || Medical Technology Horizon Scanning<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=I. |last2=Smale |first2=A. |last3=Verma |first3=A. |last4=Momandwall |first4=S. |title=Medical Technology Horizon Scanning |journal=Australasian Physical & Engineering Sciences in Medicine |date=December 2004 |volume=27 |issue=4 |pages=294–295 |url=https://search.informit.org/doi/10.3316/INFORMIT.530927290244316 |access-date=3 June 2021 |language=EN}}</ref>
|-
| Expert workshops || Horizon scan of conservation issues in UK.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sutherland |first1=William J. |last2=Bailey |first2=Mark J. |last3=Bainbridge |first3=Ian P. |last4=Brereton |first4=Tom |last5=Dick |first5=Jaimie T. A. |last6=Drewitt |first6=Joanna |last7=Dulvy |first7=Nicholas K. |last8=Dusic |first8=Nicholas R. |last9=Freckleton |first9=Robert P. |last10=Gaston |first10=Kevin J. |last11=Gilder |first11=Pam M. |last12=Green |first12=Rhys E. |last13=Heathwaite |first13=A. Louise |last14=Johnson |first14=Sally M. |last15=Macdonald |first15=David W. |last16=Mitchell |first16=Roger |last17=Osborn |first17=Daniel |last18=Owen |first18=Roger P. |last19=Pretty |first19=Jules |last20=Prior |first20=Stephanie V. |last21=Prosser |first21=Havard |last22=Pullin |first22=Andrew S. |last23=Rose |first23=Paul |last24=Stott |first24=Andrew |last25=Tew |first25=Tom |last26=Thomas |first26=Chris D. |last27=Thompson |first27=Des B. A. |last28=Vickery |first28=Juliet A. |last29=Walker |first29=Matt |last30=Walmsley |first30=Clive |last31=Warrington |first31=Stuart |last32=Watkinson |first32=Andrew R. |last33=Williams |first33=Rich J. |last34=Woodroffe |first34=Rosie |last35=Woodroof |first35=Harry J. |display-authors=3 |title=Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning |journal=Journal of Applied Ecology |date=2008 |volume=45 |issue=3 |pages=821–833 |doi=10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x |language=en |issn=1365-2664|doi-access=free }}</ref> Assessment of 100 ecological questions of highest priority to global conservation.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Sutherland |first1=William J. |last2=Armstrong‐Brown |first2=Susan |last3=Armsworth |first3=Paul R. |last4=Tom |first4=Brereton |last5=Brickland |first5=Jonathan |last6=Campbell |first6=Colin D. |last7=Chamberlain |first7=Daniel E. |last8=Cooke |first8=Andrew I. |last9=Dulvy |first9=Nicholas K. |last10=Dusic |first10=Nicholas R. |last11=Fitton |first11=Martin |last12=Freckleton |first12=Robert P. |last13=Godfray |first13=H. Charles J. |last14=Grout |first14=Nick |last15=Harvey |first15=H. John |last16=Hedley |first16=Colin |last17=Hopkins |first17=John J. |last18=Kift |first18=Neil B. |last19=Kirby |first19=Jeff |last20=Kunin |first20=William E. |last21=Macdonald |first21=David W. |last22=Marker |first22=Brian |last23=Naura |first23=Marc |last24=Neale |first24=Andrew R. |last25=Oliver |first25=Tom |last26=Osborn |first26=Dan |last27=Pullin |first27=Andrew S. |last28=Shardlow |first28=Matthew E. A. |last29=Showler |first29=David A. |last30=Smith |first30=Paul L. |last31=Smithers |first31=Richard J. |last32=Solandt |first32=Jean-Luc |last33=Spencer |first33=Jonathan |last34=Spray |first34=Chris J. |last35=Thomas |first35=Chris D. |last36=Thompson |first36=Jim |last37=Webb |first37=Sarah E. |last38=Yalden |first38=Derek W. |last39=Watkinson |first39=Andrew R. |display-authors=3 |title=The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK |journal=Journal of Applied Ecology |date=2006 |volume=43 |issue=4 |pages=617–627 |doi=10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01188.x |url=https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01188.x |language=en |issn=1365-2664|hdl=2318/123675 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> 
|-
| Open fora || Future Wiki<ref>{{cite web |title=Futura Wikia |url=http://future.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page |access-date=7 March 2021}}</ref>
|-
| [[Delphi method|Delphi questionnaire]] || 50 key issues for the future of Mediterranean wetlands<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1|title=The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions|year=2021|last1=Taylor|first1=Nigel G.|last2=Grillas|first2=Patrick|last3=Al Hreisha|first3=Hazem|last4=Balkız|first4=Özge|last5=Borie|first5=Maud|last6=Boutron|first6=Olivier|last7=Catita|first7=Ana|last8=Champagnon|first8=Jocelyn|last9=Cherif|first9=Semia|last10=Çiçek|first10=Kerim|last11=Costa|first11=Luís T.|last12=Dakki|first12=Mohamed|last13=Fois|first13=Mauro|last14=Galewski|first14=Thomas|last15=Galli|first15=Alessandro|last16=Georgiadis|first16=Nicholas M.|last17=Green|first17=Andy J.|last18=Hermoso|first18=Virgilio|last19=Kapedani|first19=Rezart|last20=Lange|first20=Manfred A.|last21=Mateljak|first21=Zoran|last22=Osta|first22=Maher|last23=Papastergiadou|first23=Eva|last24=Papazoglou|first24=Clairie|last25=Sabater|first25=Sergi|last26=Samraoui|first26=Boudjéma|last27=Samraoui|first27=Farrah|last28=Bachir|first28=Abdelkrim Si|last29=Tankovic|first29=Eva|last30=Thévenet|first30=Mathieu|journal=Regional Environmental Change|volume=21|issue=2|page=33|pmid=33776560|pmc=7982080|display-authors=3}}</ref>
|-
| [[Trend analysis]] || HSTOOL – semiautomatic discovery of scientific trends from clusters of publications<ref>{{cite book |last1=Karasalo |first1=Maja |last2=Schubert |first2=Johan |title=2019 International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition (ICDAR) |chapter=Developing Horizon Scanning Methods for the Discovery of Scientific Trends |date=September 2019 |pages=1055–1062 |doi=10.1109/ICDAR.2019.00172 |isbn=978-1-7281-3014-9 |s2cid=207977849 |chapter-url=https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8978144 |access-date=20 May 2021}}</ref>
|-
| [[Scenario planning|Scenarios]]<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Palomino |first1=Marco A. |last2=Bardsley |first2=Sarah |last3=Bown |first3=Kevin |last4=De Lurio |first4=Jennifer |last5=Ellwood |first5=Peter |last6=Holland‐Smith |first6=David |last7=Huggins |first7=Bob |last8=Vincenti |first8=Alexandra |last9=Woodroof |first9=Harry |last10=Owen |first10=Richard |display-authors=3 |title=Web‐based horizon scanning: concepts and practice |journal=Foresight |date=1 January 2012 |volume=14 |issue=5 |pages=355–373 |doi=10.1108/14636681211269851 |url=https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636681211269851/full/html |access-date=16 May 2021 |issn=1463-6689}}</ref> || [[Wildlife Conservation Society|Wildlife Conservation Societies’]] Futures of the Wild<ref>{{cite book |title=Futures of the Wild: A Project of the Wildlife Conservation Society Futures Group |date=2007 |publisher=Wildife Conservation Society Futures Group and Bio-Era}}</ref>
|-
| Systems/Maps || Foresight project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices<ref>{{cite web |title=Reducing obesity: future choices |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reducing-obesity-future-choices |website=GOV.UK |access-date=7 March 2021 |language=en |date=2007}}</ref>
|-
| [[Backcasting]] || 
|}

==Governmental bodies==
===European Union===
[[European commission]] developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps.<ref>{{cite book |title=JRC Publications Repository |url=https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109784 |website=publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu |year=2018 |doi=10.2760/331714 |access-date=23 January 2022|author1=European Commission. Joint Research Centre |publisher=Publications Office of the European Union |isbn=9789279773570 }}</ref> In 2021, a horizon scanning module was added to TRIMIS.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Tsakalidis |first1=Anastasios |last2=Boelman |first2=Elisa |last3=Marmier |first3=Alain |last4=Gkoumas |first4=Konstantinos |last5=Pekar |first5=Ferenc |display-authors=3|title=Horizon scanning for transport research and innovation governance: A European perspective |journal=Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |date=1 September 2021 |volume=11 |pages=100424 |doi=10.1016/j.trip.2021.100424 |language=en |issn=2590-1982|doi-access=free }}</ref> This horizon scanning framework developed by [[Joint Research Centre]] within TRIMIS uses news media, scientific publication sources, patent data sources, EU funding datasets and other sources as basis for text mining.

[[Joint Research Centre]]'s "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with [[text mining]] of available literature.<ref>{{cite book |title=Text mining for horizon scanning : an insight into agricultural research and innovation in Africa. |date=2020 |location=Luxembourg |isbn=978-92-76-21446-5 |url=https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC121445/hs_tim_africa_eur30349_pdf_%281%29.pdf |last1=Borchardt |first1=Steve |last2=Estreguil |first2=Christine }}</ref> This tool is developed in 2020. Among the used data sources are [[Scopus]], PATSTAT and [[Community Research and Development Information Service|Cordis]].

===Germany===
[[Umweltbundesamt]] applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with [[trend analysis]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Lehmphul |first1=Karin |title=Horizon Scanning / Trendanalyse |url=https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/horizon-scanning-trendanalyse |website=Umweltbundesamt |language=de |date=24 May 2016}}</ref>

===Russia===
In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by [[Higher School of Economics]] and financed by [[Ministry of Education and Science (Russia)|Ministry of Education and Science]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Cuhls |first1=Kerstin E. |title=Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game |journal=Futures & Foresight Science |date=2020 |volume=2 |issue=1 |pages=e23 |doi=10.1002/ffo2.23 |s2cid=212853499 |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.23 |access-date=12 October 2021 |language=en |issn=2573-5152}}</ref> In 2012, [[Putin]] stated that "[a] Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It highlights specific ways to both revitalize traditional sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…". Russian horizon scanning team consisted of 15–20 members and conducted an online survey of 2000 experts.

===Sweden===
[[Swedish Defence Research Agency]] has developed a software tool named HSTOOL for HS of scientific literature in 2019.<ref>{{cite web |title=HSTOOL for Horizon Scanning of Scientific Literature |url=https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--4760--SE |website=[[foi.se]] |access-date=20 May 2021 |language=en}}</ref> The scientific literature is searched, clustered in groups that correspond to subject subfields and evaluated based on the [[bibliometric]] numbers. The clustering is performed using [[Gibbs sampling]] [[Dirichlet-multinomial distribution|Dirichlet multinomial mixture]] model algorithm. The citation statistics are provided derived from Thomson Reuters' [[Web of Science]].

===UK===<!--don't change, a link exists into here-->
In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Miles |first1=Ian |last2=Saritas |first2=Ozcan |title=The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons |journal=Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy |date=2 November 2012 |volume=14 |issue=6 |pages=530–545 |doi=10.1108/14636681211284953 |url=https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mcb/273/2012/00000014/00000006/art00006}}</ref> The [[Cabinet Office]]'s Horizon Scanning Secretariat and the [[Government Office for Science]]'s Horizon Scanning Centre were combined to the Horizon Scanning Programme team in 2014.<ref>{{cite web |title=Horizon Scanning Programme team |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/horizon-scanning-programme-team |website=GOV.UK |access-date=26 February 2021 |language=en}}</ref>

===USA===
In 2010, The [[Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality]] (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US.<ref>{{cite web |title=Horizon Scanning: Identifying and Estimating Future Impact of Emerging Innovations on US Health Care |url=https://www.ispor.org/docs/default-source/publications/value-outcomes-spotlight/march-april-2016/vos-horizon-scanning.pdf?sfvrsn=7081ae32_2 |website=www.ispor.org |access-date=26 February 2021}}</ref>

==See also==
* [[Futurology]]
* [[Risk analysis]]
* [[Scientific lacuna]]
* [[Technology assessment]]
* [[Technology scouting]]
* [[William J. Sutherland]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}
{{Science and technology studies}}
{{Emerging technologies|topics=yes}}

[[Category:Futures techniques]]
[[Category:Policy]]