View source for Lies, damned lies, and statistics

{{Short description|Phrase criticising misuse of statistics}}
[[File:Benjamin Disraeli by Cornelius Jabez Hughes, 1878.jpg|thumb|right|The origin of the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is unclear, but [[Mark Twain]] attributed it to [[Benjamin Disraeli]]<ref name=disraeli/>]]

"'''Lies, damned lies, and statistics'''" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of [[statistics]] to bolster weak [[argument]]s, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of [[applied statistics]].{{sfn|White|1964|p=15}} It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

The phrase was popularized in the United States by [[Mark Twain]] (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister [[Benjamin Disraeli]].<ref name=disraeli>{{cite book|url=https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199237173.001.0001/q-author-00001-00000992|title=Oxford Dictionary of Quotations|edition=7|editor=Elizabeth Knowles|publisher=[[Oxford University Press]]|year=2009|isbn=9780199237173|doi=10.1093/acref/9780199237173.001.0001|quote=There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. attributed to Disraeli in Mark Twain Autobiography (1924) vol. 1; }}</ref> However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself.{{sfn|Velleman|2008}}

==History==
Mark Twain popularized the saying in ''[[Chapters from My Autobiography]]'', published in the ''[[North American Review]]'' in 1907. "Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.gutenberg.org/files/19987/19987.txt | title=Chapters from My Autobiography | author=Mark Twain |authorlink= Mark Twain | date=1906-09-07 | work=[[North American Review]] | publisher=[[Project Gutenberg]] | accessdate=2007-05-23}}</ref><ref name=disraeli/>{{sfn|White|1964|p=15}}

[[Colin White (biostatistician)|Colin White]] traces the origins to [[François Magendie]] (1783-1855). While arguing against using [[blood-letting]] to treat [[fever]], and confronted with statistical numbers he believed to be manufactured, this French physiologist stated: "Thus the alteration of the truth which is already manifesting itself in the progressive form of lying and perjury, offers us, in the [[superlative]], the statistics."{{sfn|White|1964|p=15|loc=Ainsi l'altération de la vérité qui se manifeste déjà sous la forme progressive du mensonge et du parjure, nous offre-t-elle, au superlatif, la statistique}}  In White's opinion, the world had a need of this phrase, many people "would have been proud" to coin it, and the origins are now obscured, as the phrase passed "from wit to wit".{{sfn|White|1964|p=15}}

Alternative attributions include, among many others (for example [[Walter Bagehot]] and [[Arthur James Balfour]]), the [[Radicalism (historical)|radical]] English journalist and politician [[Henry Labouchère|Henry Du Pré Labouchère]] (1831–1912), [[Jervoise Athelstane Baines]],<ref name="gaither">{{citation|title=Gaither's Dictionary of Scientific Quotations: A Collection of Approximately 27,000 Quotations Pertaining to Archaeology, Architecture, Astronomy, Biology, Botany, Chemistry, Cosmology, Darwinism, Engineering, Geology, Mathematics, Medicine, Nature, Nursing, Paleontology, Philosophy, Physics ...|first1=Carl C.|last1=Gaither|first2=Alma E.|last2=Cavazos-Gaither|publisher=Springer Science & Business Media|year=2012|isbn=9781461411147|page=2399|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=zQaCSlEM-OEC&pg=PA2399}}.</ref> and British politician and scholar [[Leonard Courtney, 1st Baron Courtney of Penwith|Leonard H. Courtney]], who used the phrase in 1895 and two years later became president of the [[Royal Statistical Society]]. Courtney is quoted by {{harvtxt|Baines|1896}} as attributing the phrase to a "wise statesman",<ref>{{citation|title=Parliamentary representation in England illustrated by the elections of 1892 and 1895|journal=[[Journal of the Royal Statistical Society]]|volume=59|date=March 1896|pages=38–124|first=J. A.|last=Baines|authorlink=Jervoise Athelstane Baines|issue=1|doi=10.2307/2979754|jstor=2979754|url=https://zenodo.org/record/1759481}}. The quote is on p.&nbsp;87.</ref> but he may have been referring to a future statesman rather than a past one.<ref name="univyork">{{cite web | url=http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm | title=Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics | publisher=[[University of York]] | accessdate=2007-05-23}}</ref> The phrase has also been attributed to [[Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington]].<ref name="Harper-Bill1997">{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=FXtxRtwyHbQC&pg=PA307|title=Anglo-Norman Studies XIX: Proceedings of the Battle Conference, 1996|publisher=Boydell & Brewer Ltd|year=1997|isbn=978-0-85115-707-8|pages=307–|author=Christopher Harper-Bill}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-to-succeed-by-stating-the-obvious-1152929.html |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220614/https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-to-succeed-by-stating-the-obvious-1152929.html |archive-date=2022-06-14 |url-access=subscription |url-status=live|title=How to succeed by stating the obvious|date=1998-03-28|newspaper=The Independent|access-date=2017-02-22|language=en-GB}}</ref>

The phrase is quoted frequently in 1895, but here is a 1894 example: "His less enthusiastic neighbor thinks of the proverbial kinds of falsehoods, “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” and replies: “Reports of large numbers of cases subjected to operation seldom fail to beget a suspicion of unjustifiable risk.”"<ref>SOME SURGICAL SINS. ADDRESS OF CHAIRMAN OF THE SECTION. BY JOHN B. ROBERTS, A.M., M.D.</ref><ref>[https://books.google.com/books?id=7GDwpLipBtoC&dq=lies+damned+lies+and+statistics&pg=PA12 ADDRESSES, PAPERS AND DISCUSSIONS IN THE SECTION ON... SURGERY AND ANATOMY AT THE Forty-Fifth Annual Meeting OF THE American Medical Association, ... HELD AT... SAN FRANCISCO, CAL., JUNE 5-8, 1894., CHICAGO: PRINTED AT THE OFFICE OF THE JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 1894.]</ref>

A Dictionary of English Folklore claims that the earliest instance resembling the phrase found in print is a letter written in the British newspaper ''[[National Observer (UK)|National Observer]]''  on June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891, p.&nbsp;93(-94):
NATIONAL PENSIONS
[To the Editor of The National Observer]
London, 8 June 1891
"Sir, —It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of
falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most
aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics
that the advocate of national pensions relies…" Later, in October 1891, as a query in ''[[Notes and Queries]]'', the [[pseudonym]]ous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date.<ref name="univyork" /> The pseudonym has been attributed to [[Eliza Gutch]].<ref name=DEF>[[Jacqueline Simpson]] (Editor), [[Steve Roud]] (Editor) (2003). ''A Dictionary of English Folklore''. [[Oxford University Press]]</ref>

The [[American Dialect Society]] list archives include numerous posts by Stephen Goranson that cite research into uses soon after the above.
They include:
* [[Sir Charles Dilke, 2nd Baronet|Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke]] (1843–1911) is reported twice in October 1891 to have used the phrase, without attributing it to others:
: "Sir Charles Dilke [1843-1911] was saying the other day that false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics." ''The Bristol Mercury and Daily Post'', Monday, October 19, 1891
:The Derby Mercury (Derby, England), October 21, 1891; Issue 9223 "Sir Charles Dilke and the Bishops" "A mass meeting of the slate quarry-men of [[Ffestiniog|Festiniog]] [Ffestiniog, Wales] was held Wednesday night [Oct. 14] to protest against certain dismissals from one of the quarries...." He [Dilke] observed that the speeches of the Bishops on the disestablishment question reminded him that there were three degrees of untruth--a fib, a lie, and statistics (Laughter)"
* The phrase, as noted by [[Robert Giffen]] in 1892, was a variation on a phrase about three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, and an expert from the [[Economic Journal]]<ref>''[[Economic Journal]]'' 2 (6) (1892), 209-238, first paragraph</ref> the paper was previously read at a meeting of the Australasian Association for the Advancement of Science at Hobart in January 1892.<ref>1892 Jan talk, June pub</ref> Robert Giffen  (1837–1910, Walter Bagehot's assistant editor at ''[[The Economist]]'' 1868ff; 1882-4 President of the Statistical Society): "An old jest runs to the effect that there are three degrees of comparison among liars. There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific experts. This has lately been adapted to throw dirt upon statistics. There are three degrees of comparison, it is said, in lying.  There are lies, there are outrageous lies, and there are statistics."
* That phrase can be found in ''Nature'', page 74 November 26, 1885: :"A well-known lawyer, now a judge, once grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts. He did not mean that the expert uttered things which he knew to be untrue, but that by the emphasis which he laid on certain statements, and by what has been defined as a highly cultivated faculty of evasion, the effect was actually worse than if he had."<ref>{{cite web | url=https://archive.org/stream/nature3318851886lock#page/74/mode/2up | title=Nature November 26 1885 | year=1869 | accessdate=2015-07-07}}</ref>
* A minute of the [[X Club]] meeting held on 5 December 1885, recorded by [[Thomas Henry Huxley]], noted "Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses—liars, d—d liars, and experts." Quoted in 1900 in [[Leonard Huxley (writer)|Leonard Huxley]]'s ''The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley''.<ref name="univyork 11">{{cite web | url=http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm | title=Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics | publisher=[[University of York]] | accessdate=2011-05-14}}</ref><ref>[[Leonard Huxley (writer)|Huxley, Leonard]], [http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/etext04/llth110.txt The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley] (2 vols), London: Macmillan 1900, Vol. I, pp. 255, 257–258. [link to [[Project Gutenberg]] transcription]</ref>

==Uses==
The phrase has been used in the title of a number of popular expositions, including:
*''Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America'', by Michael Wheeler ([[W.W. Norton & Co.]] 1976; [[Dell Publishing|Dell]] paperback 1978).
*''Quotes, Damned Quotes ..... some of them to do with statistics'' (1985), by John Bibby - an attempt to untangle the history of this quotation.
*''Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists'' (2001), by [[University of Delaware]] [[sociology|sociologist]] Joel Best ({{ISBN|978-0520219786}}).
*''Lies, Damned Lies, and Drug War Statistics: A Critical Analysis of Claims Made by the Office of National Drug Control Policy'' (2014), by Matthew B. Robinson & Renee G. Scherlen [[SUNY Press]]; {{ISBN|9781438448381}}

The essay ''The Median Isn't the Message'' by [[Stephen Jay Gould]] begins by repeating this quote.  Gould explains how the statistic that [[peritoneal mesothelioma]], the form of cancer with which he was diagnosed in 1982, has a "median survival time of eight months" is misleading.<ref>{{Cite journal |date=2013-01-01 |title=The Median Isn't the Message |url=https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/median-isnt-message/2013-01 |journal=AMA Journal of Ethics |language=en |volume=15 |issue=1 |pages=77–81 |doi=10.1001/virtualmentor.2013.15.1.mnar1-1301 |pmid=23356812 |issn=2376-6980|last1=Gould |first1=S. J. |doi-access=free }}</ref>

"Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" is the title of [[Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (The West Wing episode)|episode 21 in the first season]] of NBC drama ''[[The West Wing]].''<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0745649/|title=The West Wing: Season 1, Episode 21 : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics|publisher=IMDb.com|accessdate=2014-01-31}}</ref>

==References==
{{Reflist}}

== Sources ==
* {{cite journal | last1 = White | first1 = Colin | title = Unkind Cuts at Statisticians | journal = The American Statistician | date = December 1964 | volume = 18 | issue = 5 | pages = 15–17 | issn = 0003-1305 | eissn = 1537-2731 | doi = 10.1080/00031305.1964.10482634 | jstor = 2682462 | pmid = | url = https://www.jstor.org/stable/2682462}}
* {{cite journal | last1 = Velleman | first1 = Paul F. | title = Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics | journal = Journal of Statistics Education | date = July 2008 | volume = 16 | issue = 2 | eissn = 1069-1898 | doi = 10.1080/10691898.2008.11889565 | pmid = | s2cid = 117611755 | doi-access = free }}
* {{cite journal | last1 = Деружинский | first1 = Григорий Викторович | title = Существуют три вида обмана: ложь, наглая ложь и статистика. Этимология афоризма | journal = Вопросы статистики | date = 2015 | volume = | issue = 6 | eissn = | doi = 10.34023/2313-6383-2015-0-6-85-88 | pages=85–88 | doi-broken-date = 31 January 2024 | pmid = | url = https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/238 | language=ru | trans-title=There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Etymology of the aphorism }}

==Further reading==
* {{cite book |last=Reinhart |first=Alex |title=Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide |date=March 2015 |publisher=[[No Starch Press]] |url=http://statisticsdonewrong.com |isbn=978-1593276201 |pages=176}}

{{Misuse of statistics}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics}}
[[Category:English phrases]]
[[Category:Misuse of statistics]]
[[Category:Mark Twain]]
[[Category:Benjamin Disraeli]]