Superpower
 | It has been suggested that Superpower collapse be merged into this article. (Discuss) Proposed since February 2024. |
Superpower describes a state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale.<ref name="Munro1">Munro, André. "superpower". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 2 May 2023.</ref><ref name="Mark1" >Leonard, Mark (18 February 2005). "Europe: the new superpower". Irish Times. Archived from the original on 27 March 2009. Retrieved 31 May 2015.</ref><ref>McCormick, John (2007). The European Superpower. Palgrave Macmillan.</ref> This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological, political, and cultural strength as well as diplomatic and soft power influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers. While a great power state is capable of exerting its influence globally, superpowers are states so influential that no significant action can be taken by the global community without first considering the positions of the superpowers on the issue.<ref>Munro, André. "superpower (Political Science)". britannica. Retrieved 13 April 2022.</ref>
In 1944, during World War II, the term was first applied to the United States, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union.<ref name="The Super-Powers; The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union—Their Responsibility for Peace. By William T. R. Fox.">Hall, H. Duncan (October 1944). "The Super-Powers; The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union—Their Responsibility for Peace. By William T. R. Fox. (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. 1944. Pp. 162. $2.00.)". American Political Science Review. cambridge.org. 38 (5): 1013–1015. doi:10.2307/1949612. JSTOR 1949612. Retrieved 2013-09-02.</ref> During the Cold War, the British Empire dissolved, leaving the United States and the Soviet Union to dominate world affairs. At the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States became the world's sole superpower, a position sometimes referred to as that of a "hyperpower".<ref name="Time-May-28-2015">Bremer, Ian (May 28, 2015). "These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World's Only Superpower". Time.</ref><ref name="Nossal">Nossal, Kim Richard. Lonely Superpower or Unapologetic Hyperpower? Analyzing American Power in the post–Cold War Era. Biennial meeting, South African Political Studies Association, 29 June-2 July 1999. Archived from the original on 2012-08-07. Retrieved 2007-02-28.</ref><ref>From Colony to Superpower: U.S. Foreign Relations since 1776 (Published 2008), by Professor George C. Herring (Professor of History at Kentucky University)</ref> Since the late 2010s and into the 2020s, China has been described as an emerging superpower or even an established one,<ref>"The Debate - Macron in the middle? French president in China amid superpower showdown". France 24. 2023-04-05. Retrieved 2023-04-09.</ref><ref>Bekkevold, Jo Inge. "Why China Is Not a Superpower". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2023-04-09.</ref><ref>Schuman, Michael (2020-10-05). "What Happens When China Leads the World". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2023-04-09.</ref><ref>Simon, Kuper. "There are only two global superpowers left". Financial Times.</ref><ref>Eaglen, Mackenzie. "It's Time to Retire the Term "Near-Peer" Competitor When It Comes to China". AEI.</ref> like the United States, as China poses "the most significant challenge of any nation-state in the world to the United States".<ref name="wsj._Blinken_Backs">Mauldin, William; Gordon, Michael R. (January 20, 2021). "Blinken Backs Tough Approach to China, Says Will Work With GOP". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 28, 2021.</ref><ref>"The China Threat". Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Retrieved November 22, 2021.</ref><ref>Olivia Gazis, Caitlin Yilek (March 8, 2023). "China "most consequential threat" to U.S. national security, top intelligence official says". CBS News. Retrieved November 22, 2021.</ref><ref group=Note name=Note01/>
Terminology and origin
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No agreed definition of what is a superpower exists and may differ between sources.<ref name="Nossal" /> However, a fundamental characteristic that is consistent with all definitions of a superpower is a nation or state that has mastered the seven dimensions of state power, namely geography, population, economy, resources, military, diplomacy, and national identity.<ref>The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987) written by Paul Kennedy</ref>
The term was first used to describe nations with greater than great power status as early as 1944, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II. This was because the United States and the Soviet Union had proved themselves to be capable of casting great influence in global politics and military dominance. The term in its current political meaning was coined by Dutch-American geostrategist Nicholas Spykman in a series of lectures in 1943 about the potential shape of a new post-war world order. This formed the foundation for the book The Geography of the Peace, which referred primarily to the unmatched maritime global supremacy of the British Empire and the United States as essential for peace and prosperity in the world.
A year later, in 1944, William T. R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor, elaborated on the concept in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union — Their Responsibility for Peace which spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation.<ref name="auto">Dellios, Rosita. "China: The 21st Century Superpower?" (PDF). Casa Asia. Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref> Fox used the word superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which—as the war then raging demonstrated—states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, at that moment, there were three states that were superpowers, namely the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history and considered the foremost great power, holding sway over 25% of the world's population<ref>Maddison, Angus (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD. pp. 98, 242.</ref> and controlling about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union grew in power before and during World War II. The UK would face serious political, financial, and colonial issues after World War II that left it unable to match Soviet or American power. Ultimately, Britain's empire would gradually dissolve over the course of the 20th century, sharply reducing its global power projection.
According to Lyman Miller, "[t]he basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural (or what political scientist Joseph Nye has termed "soft power")".<ref name="stanford">Miller, Lyman. "www.stanford.edu". stanford.edu. Archived from the original on 2014-05-11. Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref>
In the opinion of Kim Richard Nossal of Queen's University in Canada, "generally, this term was used to signify a political community that occupied a continental-sized landmass; had a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a superordinate economic capacity, including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; enjoyed a high degree of non-dependence on international intercourse; and, most importantly, had a well-developed nuclear capacity (eventually, normally defined as second strike capability)".<ref name="Nossal" />
In the opinion of Professor Paul Dukes, "a superpower must be able to conduct a global strategy, including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology". Although "many modifications may be made to this basic definition".<ref>"The Superpowers – A Short History". 8 December 2008. Archived from the original on 8 December 2008.</ref> According to Professor June Teufel Dreyer, "[a] superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally".<ref>"PDF Version - Foreign Policy Research Institute" (PDF). www.fpri.org. Retrieved 2015-05-31.</ref> In his book Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World, Dr. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, argues that a superpower is "a country that can exert enough military, political, and economic power to persuade nations in every region of the world to take important actions they would not otherwise take".<ref>Bremmer, Ian. 2015. [1] Archived 2018-04-29 at the Wayback Machine Portfolio (Penguin Group): New York.</ref>
Apart from its common denotation of the foremost post-WWII states, the term superpower has colloquially been applied by some authors retrospectively to describe various preeminent ancient great empires or medieval great powers, in works such as Channel 5 (UK)'s documentary Rome: The World's First Superpower or the reference in The New Cambridge Medieval History to "the other superpower, Sasanian Persia".<ref>Cambridge (1995). The New Cambridge Medieval History. Vol. 1: C.500-c.700. Cambridge University Press. p. 323. ISBN 9780521362917 – via Google Books.</ref>
Cold War
The 1956 Suez Crisis suggested that Britain, financially weakened by two world wars, could not then pursue its foreign policy objectives on an equal footing with the new superpowers without sacrificing convertibility of its reserve currency as a central goal of policy.<ref>Adam Klug and Gregor W. Smith, 'Suez and Sterling', Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 36, No. 3 (July 1999), pp. 181–203.</ref> As the majority of World War II had been fought far from its national boundaries, the United States had not suffered the industrial destruction nor massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. The war had reinforced the position of the United States as the world's largest long-term creditor nation<ref>"Getting Serious About the Twin Deficits "by Author: Menzie D. Chinn - September 2005 by Council on Foreign Relations Press [2] Archived 2012-04-02 at the Wayback Machine</ref> and its principal supplier of goods; moreover, it had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.<ref>The Cold War: The Geography of Containment Gary E. Oldenburger by Oldenburger Independent Studies; December 2002</ref> Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the superpowers had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like and after the withdrawal of British aid to Greece in 1947, the United States took the lead in containing Soviet expansion in the Cold War.<ref>Robert Frazier, 'Did Britain Start the Cold War? Bevin and the Truman Doctrine', Historical Journal, Vol. 27, No. 3 (Sep., 1984), pp. 715–727.</ref>
The two countries opposed each other ideologically, politically, militarily, and economically. The Soviet Union promoted the ideology of Marxism–Leninism, planned economy, and a one-party state whilst the United States promoted the ideologies of liberal democracy and the free market in a capitalist market economy. This was reflected in the Warsaw Pact and NATO military alliances, respectively, as most of Europe became aligned with either the United States or the Soviet Union. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world.[citation needed]
The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post–Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two superpowers.<ref>Conflicts of Superpower by Signal Alpha News Achieve Press 2005</ref> Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in proxy wars, which more often than not involved issues more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.<ref>Economic Interests, Party, and Ideology in Early Cold War Era U.S. Foreign Policy Archived 2012-09-28 at the Wayback Machine Benjamin O. Fordham by World Peace Foundation; Massachusetts Institute of Technology April 1998</ref>
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era.<ref name="Nossal" /> This term, popularized by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the late 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory is Samuel P. Huntington, who rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power. Other international relations theorists such as Henry Kissinger theorize that because the threat of the Soviet Union no longer exists to formerly American-dominated regions such as Western Europe and Japan, American influence is only declining since the end of the Cold War because such regions no longer need protection or have necessarily similar foreign policies as the United States.<ref>Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, pp. 24, 26</ref>
Post-Cold War era
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 which ended the Cold War, the post–Cold War world has in the past been considered by some to be a unipolar world,<ref name="Krauthammer1">Charles Krauthammer, The Unipolar Moment, Foreign Policy Magazine (1991).</ref><ref>"www.gaikoforum.com" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref> with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower.<ref>Country profile: United States of America, BBC News. Retrieved March 11, 2007.</ref> In 1999, political scientist and author Samuel P. Huntington wrote: "The United States, of course, is the sole state with preeminence in every domain of power – economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological, and cultural – with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world". However, Huntington rejected the claim that the world was unipolar, arguing: "There is now only one superpower. But that does not mean that the world is unipolar", describing it instead as "a strange hybrid, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers". He further wrote that "Washington is blind to the fact that it no longer enjoys the dominance it had at the end of the Cold War. It must relearn the game of international politics as a major power, not a superpower, and make compromises".<ref name="affairs">Huntington, Samuel P. (27 April 2006). "The Lonely Superpower". Foreign Affairs. Archived from the original on 27 April 2006.</ref>
Experts argue that this older single-superpower assessment of global politics is too simplified, in part because of the difficulty in classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is outdated, considering complex global economic interdependencies and propose that the world is multipolar.<ref name="The Global list (No superpower)">Schwenninger, Sherle (December 5, 2003). "The Multipolar World Vs. The Superpower". The Globalist. Archived from the original on 2006-06-13. Retrieved 2006-06-10.</ref><ref name="Washington Post (No superpower)">Von Drehle, David (5 March 2006). "The Multipolar Unilateralist". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-06-10.</ref><ref name="Globalpolicy.org (No superpower)">"No Longer the "Lone" Superpower". Retrieved 2006-06-11.</ref><ref name="A Times (No superpower)">Henry C K Liu (April 5, 2003). "The war that may end the age of superpower". Asia Times. Archived from the original on April 6, 2003. Retrieved 2006-06-11.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)</ref>
A 2012 report by the National Intelligence Council predicted that the United States superpower status will have eroded to merely being first among equals by 2030, but that it would remain highest among the world's most powerful countries because of its influence in many different fields and global connections that the great regional powers of the time would not match.[citation needed] Additionally, some experts have suggested the possibility of the United States losing its superpower status completely in the future, citing speculation of its decline in power relative to the rest of the world, economic hardships, a declining dollar, Cold War allies becoming less dependent on the United States, and the emergence of future powers around the world.<ref name="uiuc-superpower">Unger J (2008), U.S. no longer superpower, now a besieged global power, scholars say University of Illinois</ref><ref>Almond, Steve (2007-08-22). "Seizing American supremacy". Salon.com. Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref><ref>Martinez-Diaz, Leonardo (2007-04-28). "U.S.: A Losing Superpower?". Brookings.edu. Archived from the original on 2010-06-02. Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref>
According to a RAND Corporation paper by American diplomat James Dobbins, Professor Howard J. Shatz, and policy analyst Ali Wyne, Russia in the breakdown of a disintegrating unipolar world order, whilst not a peer competitor to the United States, would still remain a player and a potential rogue state that would undermine global affairs. The West could contain Russia with methods like those employed during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, though this would be tested by Russia's overt and covert efforts to destabilize Western alliances and political systems. On the other hand, China is a peer competitor to the United States that cannot be contained, and will be a far more challenging entity for the West to confront. The authors state that China's military dominance in the Asia-Pacific is already eroding American influence at a rapid pace, and the costs for the US to defend its interests there will continue to rise. Moreover, China's economic influence has already broken out of its regional confines long ago and is on track to directly contest the US role as the center for economic trade and commerce.<ref name="RAND Corporation-October-2018">Dobbins, James; Shatz, Howard; Wyne, Ali (2018). Russia Is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China Is a Peer, Not a Rogue: Different Challenges, Different Responses (Report). RAND Corporation.</ref><ref name="Sage Journals-January-16-2018">Maher, Paul J; Igou, Eric R; van Tilburg, Wijnand A.P. (January 16, 2018). "Brexit, Trump, and the Polarizing Effect of Disillusionment". Social Psychological and Personality Science. Sage Journals. 9 (2): 205–213. doi:10.1177/1948550617750737. S2CID 149195975.</ref><ref name="Deutsche Welle-September-18-2018">Janjevic, Darko (September 18, 2018). "Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban's special relationship". Deutsche Welle.</ref><ref name="The Conversation-March-22-2019">King, Winnie (March 22, 2019). "Italy joins China's Belt and Road Initiative – here's how it exposes cracks in Europe and the G7". The Conversation.</ref>
Proposed early superpowers
There have been many attempts by historians to apply the term superpower retrospectively, and sometimes very loosely, to a variety of entities in the past. Recognition by historians of these older states as superpowers may focus on various superlative traits exhibited by them. The first states to actually exert influence and project their power at a global level (and not just regionally) and to be in fact superpowers in the modern sense of the concept were the states of the Iberian peninsula, namely the Kingdom of Portugal and Habsburg Spain,<ref>Kamen, H., Spain's Road To Empire: The Making Of A World Power, 1492–1763, 2003, Penguin, 640p.</ref><ref>"The history of the Spanish Armada". Royal Museums Greenwich. Retrieved 23 March 2022.</ref> which inaugurated the European overseas expansion in the 16th century, establishing vast colonial empires. The signing of the Treaty of Tordesillas, establishing the division of the lands discovered by Portugal and Spain, nominally divided the world between these superpowers until 1580, when there was the Iberian Union between the crowns of the monarchies of these nations that lasted until 1640. During the 17th century the Portuguese Empire was largely replaced by the Dutch Empire that made much of the 17th century part of the Dutch Golden Age. Soon after the Spanish and Dutch Empires were joined by the French colonial Empire from 1643 until 1815<ref>Aldrich, Robert (1996). Greater France: A History of French Overseas Expansion. p. 304.</ref><ref>Page, Melvin E., ed. (2003). Colonialism: An International Social, Cultural, and Political Encyclopedia. ABC-CLIO. p. 218. ISBN 9781576073353 – via Google Books.</ref> from the reign of King Louis XIV until the defeat of Napoleon in the Napoleonic Wars<ref>Englund, Steven (2005). Napoleon: A Political Life. Harvard University Press. p. 254.</ref> though the french would then build a second colonial empire during the 19th century. After 1688, with the end of its Golden Age, the Dutch Empire was largely replaced by the British Empire,<ref name="auto" /> after this country went through its Glorious Revolution in 1688 and its pioneering role in the industrialization process in the 18th century that would lead to global hegemony in the 19th century and early 20th century (before the World War I). By the end of the 19th century Germany had also acquired a colonial empire of notable size though smaller than those of Britain and France.
Overall proposed examples of ancient or historical superpowers include the British Empire,<ref>Clayton, Anthony (1986). The British Empire as a Superpower, 1919–39. doi:10.1007/978-1-349-08609-2. ISBN 978-1-349-08611-5.</ref> Ancient Egypt,<ref>McDonald, Angela (10 January 2017). Ancient Egypt. National Geographic Books. ISBN 978-1-4654-5753-0. OCLC 966861438.</ref> the Mughal Empire,<ref>"Mughal dynasty | Map, Rulers, Decline, & Facts | Britannica". www.britannica.com. 2024-02-23. Retrieved 2024-03-07.</ref> the Hittite Empire,<ref>Giusfredi, Federico (2016-01-11). "Hittite Empire". The Encyclopedia of Empire. Oxford, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. pp. 1–7. doi:10.1002/9781118455074.wbeoe265. ISBN 9781118455074. Retrieved 2022-12-27.</ref> the Neo-Assyrian Empire,<ref>"The rise of the Neo-Assyrian empire", The Ancient Near East, Routledge, pp. 499–520, 2013-12-04, doi:10.4324/9781315879895-41, ISBN 978-1-315-87989-5, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref><ref>Siddall, Luis R. (2019-11-13), "The Nature of Siege Warfare in the Neo-Assyrian Period", Brill's Companion to Sieges in the Ancient Mediterranean, BRILL, pp. 35–52, doi:10.1163/9789004413740_004, ISBN 9789004413740, S2CID 214558514, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> the Neo-Babylonian Empire,<ref>Fantalkin, Alexander (2017-12-01). "In Defense of Nebuchadnezzar II the Warrior". Altorientalische Forschungen. 44 (2). doi:10.1515/aofo-2017-0014. ISSN 2196-6761. S2CID 165967543.</ref> the Achaemenid Empire,<ref>Kuhrt, Amélie (2014-02-14), "State Communications in the Persian Empire", State Correspondence in the Ancient World, Oxford University Press, pp. 112–140, doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199354771.003.0006, ISBN 978-0-19-935477-1, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> Macedonian Empire,<ref>"Alexander and his empire", Conquest and Empire, Cambridge University Press, pp. 229–258, 1993-03-26, doi:10.1017/cbo9780511518539.006, ISBN 9780521406796, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> the Han Empire,<ref>Lockard, Craig A. (2013-02-04). "Chinese emigration to 1948". The Encyclopedia of Global Human Migration. doi:10.1002/9781444351071.wbeghm130. ISBN 9781444334890.</ref> the Roman Empire,<ref>"How Rome fell: death of a superpower". Choice Reviews Online. 47 (7): 47–3968-47-3968. 2010-03-01. doi:10.5860/choice.47-3968. ISSN 0009-4978.</ref> the Byzantine Empire, the Carthaginian Empire,<ref>Miles, Richard (2011). "Carthage: A Mediterranean Superpower". Historically Speaking. 12 (4): 35–37. doi:10.1353/hsp.2011.0059. ISSN 1944-6438. S2CID 162227777.</ref> the Sasanid Empire, the Maurya Empire,<ref>Kulke, Hermann; Rothermund, Dietmar (2004-08-26). A History of India. doi:10.4324/9780203391266. ISBN 9781134331918.</ref><ref>Raza, Ahmed (2021-08-16). "Vajpayee: The Years that Changed India ShaktiSinha, Vajpayee: The Years that Changed India, Penguin/Vintage Books, New Delhi, 2020, 368 pp., Rs.599.00 (Hardback), [[:Template:Text]] 9780670093441". Strategic Analysis. 45 (5): 444–445. doi:10.1080/09700161.2021.1965348. ISSN 0970-0161. S2CID 243093620. {{cite journal}}: URL–wikilink conflict (help)</ref> the Gupta Empire,<ref>Sinha, Kanad (2019). State, Power and Legitimacy: The Gupta Kingdom. Primus Books. ISBN 9789352902798.</ref> the Russian Empire,<ref>Neumann, Iver B (2008-06-01). "Russia as a great power, 1815–2007". Journal of International Relations and Development. 11 (2): 128–151. doi:10.1057/jird.2008.7. ISSN 1581-1980.</ref> the Tang Empire,<ref>Lockard, Craig. ""Tang Civilization and the Chinese Centuries"" (PDF).</ref> the Umayyad Caliphate,<ref>Burbank, Jane (5 July 2011). Empires in world history : power and the politics of difference. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-15236-3. OCLC 751801141.</ref> the Mongol Empire,<ref>"Conclusion", The Crimes of Empire, Pluto Press, pp. 241–248, doi:10.2307/j.ctt183p1d6.13, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> the Timurid Empire, the Ottoman Empire,<ref>Stone, Norman (2017). Turkey : a short history. Thames & Hudson. ISBN 978-0-500-29299-0. OCLC 986757557.</ref> the Habsburg Empire,<ref>Mitchell, A. Wess (2019-10-01), "The Habsburg Puzzle", The Grand Strategy of the Habsburg Empire, Princeton University Press, pp. 1–18, doi:10.23943/princeton/9780691196442.003.0001, ISBN 9780691196442, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> the French colonial Empire,<ref>Aldrich, Robert (1996), "The French Overseas", Greater France, London: Macmillan Education UK, pp. 122–162, doi:10.1007/978-1-349-24729-5_6, ISBN 978-0-333-56740-1, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref><ref>"Colonialism: an international, social, cultural, and political encyclopedia". Choice Reviews Online. 41 (7): 218. 2004-03-01. doi:10.5860/choice.41-3809. ISSN 0009-4978.</ref> the Spanish Empire,<ref>H, Kamen. Spain's Road To Empire: The Making Of A World Power, 1492–1763. pp. 640p.</ref><ref>"The Spanish Armada", A History of the English-Speaking Peoples, Cassell & Company Ltd, 1956, doi:10.5040/9781472582362.ch-009, ISBN 978-1-4725-8236-2, retrieved 2022-12-27</ref> the Portuguese Empire, the Dutch Empire, the First French Empire of Napoleon,<ref>Jordan, David P. (June 2007). "Napoleon: A Political Life . By Steven Englund. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004. Pp. xiv+575. $18.95". The Journal of Modern History. 79 (2): 438–440. doi:10.1086/519344. ISSN 0022-2801.</ref> the German Empire, Safavid Iran, Afsharid Iran, the Parthian Empire, Ming Empire, and the Germanic Kingdoms.
According to historical statistics and research from the OECD, until the early modern period, Western Europe, China, and India accounted for roughly ⅔ of the world's GDP.<ref name="Maddison 2006 656">Maddison, Angus (2006). The World Economy - Volume 1: A Millennial Perspective and Volume 2: Historical Statistics. OECD Publishing by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. p. 656. ISBN 9789264022621.</ref>
Potential superpowers
Extant superpower
Potential superpowers—supported in varying degrees by academics
The term potential superpowers has been applied by scholars and other qualified commentators to the possibility of several political entities achieving superpower status in the 21st century. Due to their large markets, growing military strength, economic potential, and influence in international affairs, China,<ref>"What kind of superpower could China be?". BBC News. 19 October 2012.</ref><ref>"China as a global power". China.usc.edu. 2007-11-13. Retrieved 2010-08-27.</ref><ref>CNN (1999). Visions of China. CNN Specials, 1999. Retrieved on 2007-03-11 from http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1999/china.50/asian.superpower/.</ref> the European Union,<ref name="Mark1" /> India,<ref>Meredith, R (2008) The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What it Means for All of Us, "W.W Norton and Company" ISBN 978-0-393-33193-6</ref> and Russia<ref>Rosefielde, Steven (February 2005). Russia in the 21st Century. UNC Press. ISBN 978-0-521-54529-7.</ref> are among the political entities most cited as having the potential of achieving superpower status in the 21st century. In 2020, a new UBS survey found that 57% of global investors predicted that China would replace the U.S. as the world's biggest superpower by 2030.<ref>Saloway, Scott (24 January 2020). "China will replace the US as the world's biggest superpower by 2030: UBS survey". Yahoo Finance (UBS).</ref> However, many historians, writers, and critics have expressed doubts whether any of these countries would ever emerge as a new superpower.<ref>Biswas, Soutik (2012-03-13). "Why India Will Not Become a Superpower". BBC India. Retrieved 2012-04-29.</ref><ref>Yuanan, Zhang (2013-07-31). "Why China Is Still No Superpower". Retrieved 2014-03-14.</ref> Some political scientists and other commentators have even suggested that such countries might simply be emerging powers, as opposed to potential superpowers.<ref name="BRICS">"The Centre for Chinese Studies – Study of China and East Asia on the African continent" (PDF). www.ccs.org.za. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-12-04.</ref> The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect.<ref>dmalloy (2023-06-15). "The world's regulatory superpower is taking on a regulatory nightmare: artificial intelligence". Atlantic Council. Retrieved 2023-09-15.</ref><ref>kdaponte (2023-05-24). "Meta fine shows EU is 'regulatory superpower,' Northeastern expert says". College of Social Sciences and Humanities. Retrieved 2023-09-15.</ref><ref>Bradford, Anu (2020-03-01). "The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World". Faculty Books.</ref>
The record of such predictions has not been perfect. For example, in the 1980s, some commentators thought Japan would become a superpower due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time.<ref>time.com 1988 article "Japan From Superrich To Superpower"</ref> However, Japan's economy crashed in 1991, creating a long period of economic slump in the country which has become known as the Lost Decades.
Increasing doubts have emerged around the potential of Russia to gain superpower status given its declining economy, severe military underperformance during the invasion of Ukraine, and its loss of influence in Central Asia, a region once dominated by Moscow for centuries.<ref name="CNBC1">Gamble, Hadley (20 May 2017). "EU foreign policy chief dismisses Russia's superpower status, doubts Trump will pay Syria bill". CNBC. Retrieved 3 August 2023.</ref><ref name="Krugman1">Krugman, Paul (1 Mar 2022). "View: Russia is a Potemkin superpower. The Ukrainian invasion has made that clear". The New York Times. The Economic Times. Retrieved 3 August 2023.</ref><ref name="Von Drehle1">Von Drehle, David (15 March 2022). "War proves that Russia is no longer a superpower". The Washington Post. Retrieved 3 August 2023.</ref>
See also
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Notes
References
Bibliography
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