Horizon scanning

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For other uses, see Horizon scanning (disambiguation).
For other uses of "HS", see HS (disambiguation).

Template:Futures studies Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight.<ref>Cuhls, Kerstin E. (2020). "Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game". Futures & Foresight Science. 2 (1): e23. doi:10.1002/ffo2.23. ISSN 2573-5152.</ref> It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice.<ref name=biosecurity>"Continuity Central". www.continuitycentral.com. Retrieved 25 February 2021.</ref><ref>Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; et al. (January 2014). "A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014". Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 29 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004. PMC 3884124. PMID 24332318.</ref><ref>Smith, J; Ward, D; Michaelides, M; et al. (September 2015). "New and emerging technologies for the treatment of inherited retinal diseases: a horizon scanning review". Eye. 29 (9): 1131–1140. doi:10.1038/eye.2015.115. PMC 4565944. PMID 26113499.</ref> Such domains include agriculture,<ref>Text Mining for Horizon Scanning: An Insight Into Agricultural Research and Innovation in Africa. Publications Office of the European Union. 2020. ISBN 978-92-76-21446-5.</ref> environmental studies,<ref name=theneed>Sutherland, William J.; Woodroof, Harry J. (1 October 2009). "The need for environmental horizon scanning". Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 24 (10): 523–527. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.008. ISSN 0169-5347. PMID 19660827.</ref> health care,<ref name=healthcare/> biosecurity,<ref name=biosecurity/> and food safety.<ref>"Horizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety" (PDF). FAO. Retrieved 25 February 2021.</ref>

Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES),<ref>Schultz, Wendy L. (1 January 2006). "The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence‐based policy context". Foresight. 8 (4): 3–12. doi:10.1108/14636680610681996. ISSN 1463-6689.</ref> or view HS as a subset of ES,<ref>Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan (2 November 2012). "The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons". Foresight. 14 (6): 530–545. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953.</ref> or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS.<ref>van Rij, Victor (1 February 2010). "Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge". Science and Public Policy. 37 (1): 7–18. doi:10.3152/030234210X484801. ISSN 0302-3427.</ref> In summary, ES has key differences to HS.<ref>Rowe, Emily; Wright, George; Derbyshire, James (1 December 2017). "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 125: 224–235. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.001. ISSN 0040-1625.</ref> ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment.<ref>Choo, Chun Wei (2002). Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment. Information Today, Inc. ISBN 978-1-57387-125-9.</ref><ref>Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan (2 November 2012). "The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons". Foresight. 14 (6): 530–545. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953. ISSN 1463-6689.</ref><ref>Ramírez, Rafael; Selsky, John W. (February 2016). "Strategic Planning in Turbulent Environments: A Social Ecology Approach to Scenarios". Long Range Planning. 49 (1): 90–102. doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2014.09.002.</ref>

Etymology

One of the first usages of the term horizon scanning as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005.<ref>Gates, William H. (1 January 1995). "Horizon Scanning: Opportunities Technology Will Bring by 2005". Journal of Business Strategy. 16 (1): 19–21. doi:10.1108/eb039676. ISSN 0275-6668.</ref> Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European workshop in September 1997, whose participants were 27 policy makers and researchers from 12 countries.<ref name=healthcare>Carlsson, P.; Jørgensen, T. (1998). "Scanning the horizon for emerging health technologies. Conclusions from a European Workshop". International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 14 (4): 695–704. doi:10.1017/s0266462300012010. ISSN 0266-4623. PMID 9885460. S2CID 1184587.</ref> This workshop was organized as a part of the European health technology assessment project (HTA).<ref name=healthcare/> Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning.<ref name=healthcare/>

Definitions of Horizon Scanning
Year Source Definition
2002 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Horizon scanning is "the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning’ and, continuing, horizon scanning ‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."<ref>Könnölä, Totti; Salo, Ahti; Cagnin, Cristiano; et al. (1 March 2012). "Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning". Science and Public Policy. 39 (2): 222–231. doi:10.1093/scipol/scs021. hdl:11475/8386.</ref>

2004 UK Government's Chief Scientific Advisor's Committee "Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments including – but not restricted to – those that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends."<ref>Palomino, Marco A.; Bardsley, Sarah; Bown, Kevin; et al. (24 August 2012). "Web‐based horizon scanning: concepts and practice". Foresight. 14 (5): 355–373. doi:10.1108/14636681211269851.</ref>
2015 Report by Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland for the European Commission "Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments. These can be weak (or early) signals, trends, wild cards or other developments, persistent problems, risks and threats, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions."<ref>"Models of Horizon Scanning How to integrate Horizon Scanning into European Research and Innovation Policies" (PDF). Fraunhofer ISI. 2015. Retrieved 26 February 2021.</ref>
2019 OECD

Horizon scanning is "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand."<ref>National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2020-01-14). HORIZON SCANNING AND FORESIGHT METHODS. National Academies Press (US). Retrieved 22 June 2021.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)</ref>

Phases and techniques

A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process:<ref name=hsofhs>Sun, F; Schoelles, K (2013). AHRQ Health Care Horizon Scanning System A Systematic Review of Methods for Health Care Technology Horizon Scanning (PDF).</ref>

  • Identify the users of the HS products.
  • Estimate the time available for the HS effort.
  • Conduct HS, and identify emerging technologies that potentially affect targeted domain.
  • Filter the identified technologies by applying criteria for determining the relevance of the technologies to the HS effort.
  • Prioritize the technologies that have passed through the filtering process by applying criteria based on stakeholders’ requirements and needs.
  • Assess technologies of high priority for the stakeholders, and predict their potential impacts targeted domain.
  • Use peer review to check for quality of the HS process and products.
  • Disseminate the HS products to the relevant audiences in a timely fashion.
  • Update the HS products on a regular basis or when a significant development occurs related to the technology.

Horizon scanning shares common methods with future-oriented technology analysis.<ref>Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective". Futures. 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN 0016-3287.</ref><ref>Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022). "Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network. SSRN 4151745. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)</ref> Horizon scanning includes following techniques:<ref name=theneed/><ref name=hsofhs/>

Technique Example
Interviews Environmental Research Funders Forum Horizon Scanning Study<ref>"An Environment Research Funders' Forum Report: Horizon Scanning Study". ERA Visions. 2007. Retrieved 7 March 2021.</ref>
Issue tree Foresight project on Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs<ref>"Brain science, addiction and drugs". GOV.UK. 2005. Retrieved 7 March 2021.</ref>
Literature searches and state-of-science reviews Medical Technology Horizon Scanning<ref>Brown, I.; Smale, A.; Verma, A.; Momandwall, S. (December 2004). "Medical Technology Horizon Scanning". Australasian Physical & Engineering Sciences in Medicine. 27 (4): 294–295. Retrieved 3 June 2021.</ref>
Expert workshops Horizon scan of conservation issues in UK.<ref>Sutherland, William J.; Bailey, Mark J.; Bainbridge, Ian P.; et al. (2008). "Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning". Journal of Applied Ecology. 45 (3): 821–833. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x. ISSN 1365-2664.</ref> Assessment of 100 ecological questions of highest priority to global conservation.<ref>Sutherland, William J.; Armstrong‐Brown, Susan; Armsworth, Paul R.; et al. (2006). "The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK". Journal of Applied Ecology. 43 (4): 617–627. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01188.x. hdl:2318/123675. ISSN 1365-2664.</ref>
Open fora Future Wiki<ref>"Futura Wikia". Retrieved 7 March 2021.</ref>
Delphi questionnaire 50 key issues for the future of Mediterranean wetlands<ref>Taylor, Nigel G.; Grillas, Patrick; Al Hreisha, Hazem; et al. (2021). "The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions". Regional Environmental Change. 21 (2): 33. doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1. PMC 7982080. PMID 33776560.</ref>
Trend analysis HSTOOL – semiautomatic discovery of scientific trends from clusters of publications<ref>Karasalo, Maja; Schubert, Johan (September 2019). "Developing Horizon Scanning Methods for the Discovery of Scientific Trends". 2019 International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition (ICDAR). pp. 1055–1062. doi:10.1109/ICDAR.2019.00172. ISBN 978-1-7281-3014-9. S2CID 207977849. Retrieved 20 May 2021.</ref>
Scenarios<ref>Palomino, Marco A.; Bardsley, Sarah; Bown, Kevin; et al. (1 January 2012). "Web‐based horizon scanning: concepts and practice". Foresight. 14 (5): 355–373. doi:10.1108/14636681211269851. ISSN 1463-6689. Retrieved 16 May 2021.</ref> Wildlife Conservation Societies’ Futures of the Wild<ref>Futures of the Wild: A Project of the Wildlife Conservation Society Futures Group. Wildife Conservation Society Futures Group and Bio-Era. 2007.</ref>
Systems/Maps Foresight project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices<ref>"Reducing obesity: future choices". GOV.UK. 2007. Retrieved 7 March 2021.</ref>
Backcasting

Governmental bodies

European Union

European commission developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps.<ref>European Commission. Joint Research Centre (2018). JRC Publications Repository. Publications Office of the European Union. doi:10.2760/331714. ISBN 9789279773570. Retrieved 23 January 2022. {{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)</ref> In 2021, a horizon scanning module was added to TRIMIS.<ref>Tsakalidis, Anastasios; Boelman, Elisa; Marmier, Alain; et al. (1 September 2021). "Horizon scanning for transport research and innovation governance: A European perspective". Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. 11: 100424. doi:10.1016/j.trip.2021.100424. ISSN 2590-1982.</ref> This horizon scanning framework developed by Joint Research Centre within TRIMIS uses news media, scientific publication sources, patent data sources, EU funding datasets and other sources as basis for text mining.

Joint Research Centre's "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with text mining of available literature.<ref>Borchardt, Steve; Estreguil, Christine (2020). Text mining for horizon scanning : an insight into agricultural research and innovation in Africa (PDF). Luxembourg. ISBN 978-92-76-21446-5.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)</ref> This tool is developed in 2020. Among the used data sources are Scopus, PATSTAT and Cordis.

Germany

Umweltbundesamt applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with trend analysis.<ref>Lehmphul, Karin (24 May 2016). "Horizon Scanning / Trendanalyse". Umweltbundesamt (in Deutsch).</ref>

Russia

In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by Higher School of Economics and financed by Ministry of Education and Science.<ref>Cuhls, Kerstin E. (2020). "Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game". Futures & Foresight Science. 2 (1): e23. doi:10.1002/ffo2.23. ISSN 2573-5152. S2CID 212853499. Retrieved 12 October 2021.</ref> In 2012, Putin stated that "[a] Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It highlights specific ways to both revitalize traditional sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…". Russian horizon scanning team consisted of 15–20 members and conducted an online survey of 2000 experts.

Sweden

Swedish Defence Research Agency has developed a software tool named HSTOOL for HS of scientific literature in 2019.<ref>"HSTOOL for Horizon Scanning of Scientific Literature". foi.se. Retrieved 20 May 2021.</ref> The scientific literature is searched, clustered in groups that correspond to subject subfields and evaluated based on the bibliometric numbers. The clustering is performed using Gibbs sampling Dirichlet multinomial mixture model algorithm. The citation statistics are provided derived from Thomson Reuters' Web of Science.

UK

In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005.<ref>Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan (2 November 2012). "The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons". Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy. 14 (6): 530–545. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953.</ref> The Cabinet Office's Horizon Scanning Secretariat and the Government Office for Science's Horizon Scanning Centre were combined to the Horizon Scanning Programme team in 2014.<ref>"Horizon Scanning Programme team". GOV.UK. Retrieved 26 February 2021.</ref>

USA

In 2010, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US.<ref>"Horizon Scanning: Identifying and Estimating Future Impact of Emerging Innovations on US Health Care" (PDF). www.ispor.org. Retrieved 26 February 2021.</ref>

See also

References

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