Duck curve
Orange curve: (the duck curve) supply of electrical power from dispatchable sources,
Gray curve: supply of solar electrical power
Data is for the State of California on October 22, 2016 (a Saturday),<ref name=":0">"California ISO - Renewables Reporting". www.caiso.com.</ref> a day when the wind power output was low and steady throughout the day.
The orange curve rises steeply from 17:00 to 18:00 as the sun sets, requiring about 5 gigawatt of generating capacity from dispatchable sources to come on line within one hour.
The duck curve is a graph of power production over the course of a day that shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and solar power generation. The graph resembles a sitting duck, and thus the term was created.<ref name="Azemena 2022 2747–2756">Azemena, Henri Joël; Ayadi, Ali; Samet, Ahmed (2022). "Explainable Artificial Intelligent as a solution approach to the Duck Curve problem". Procedia Computer Science. 207: 2747–2756. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.333.</ref> Used in utility-scale electricity generation, the term was coined in 2012 by the California Independent System Operator.<ref>Roberts, David (20 March 2018). "Solar power's greatest challenge was discovered 10 years ago. It looks like a duck". Vox. Retrieved 20 March 2018.</ref><ref>Staple, Gregory. "California's Grid Geeks: Flattening the 'duck curve'". Green Biz. Retrieved 9 May 2021.</ref>
Solar power
In some energy markets, daily peak demand occurs after sunset, when solar power is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles the silhouette of a duck.<ref name=":1">Paul Denholm, Matthew O'Connell, Gregory Brinkman, and Jennie Jorgenson. "Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart" NREL/TP-6A20-65023. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, November 2015</ref><ref name=":2">Wirfs-Brock, Jordan (2 October 2014). "IE Questions: Why Is California Trying To Behead The Duck?". Inside Energy. Retrieved 29 October 2016.</ref> In Hawaii, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve.<ref name=":3">"Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth". The Energy Collective. Archived from the original on 3 July 2018. Retrieved 4 February 2015.</ref><ref>"Hawaii's Solar-Grid Landscape and the 'Nessie Curve'". 10 February 2014. Retrieved 10 January 2017.</ref>
Without any form of energy storage, after times of high solar generation, power companies must rapidly increase other forms of power generation around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid growth of photovoltaics.<ref name=":4">"What the Duck Curve Tells Us About Managing A Green Grid" (PDF). caiso.com. California ISO. Retrieved 29 April 2015.</ref> Storage such as dammed hydropower can fix these issues if it can be implemented.<ref>Wallach, Omri (4 April 2022). "The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained". Elements by Visual Capitalist. Retrieved 28 December 2022.</ref> Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile.<ref name=ducks2fly>Lazar, Jim. "Teaching the "Duck" to Fly" (PDF). RAP. Retrieved 29 April 2015.</ref>
Mitigation strategies
Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include:<ref name=ducks2fly />
- Installing more dispatchable generation
- Orienting some solar collectors toward the west to maximize generation near sunset.<ref name=vorrath2020-08>Vorrath, Sophie (30 August 2020). "Solar tariffs reshaped to favour batteries, EVs, and west-facing panels". RenewEconomy.
even out the "solar duck curve". . install batteries and west-facing panels, which helps stretch solar generation into the afternoon-evening peak.
</ref> - Energy storage<ref name=vorrath2020-08/> including:
- Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
- Battery storage power stations These can be colocated with solar power plants that are designed with DC capacity above their AC rating,<ref>"It's time to start wasting solar energy". Retrieved 31 December 2020.</ref> or at other suitable sites, including old fossil fuel plants so as to utilize their existing transmission infrastructure (e.g. the Moss Landing Power Plant).
- Solar thermal energy with thermal energy storage
- Ice storage air conditioning
- Use of batteries in electric vehicles for temporary storage (vehicle-to-grid)<ref>Pyper, Julia (9 May 2019). "Electric Ridesharing Benefits the Grid, and EVgo Has the Data to Prove It". www.greentechmedia.com. Archived from the original on 18 October 2020.
By charging up in the middle of the day, LDV fleets on EVgo's network also help to address the duck curve — where midday net load drops, driven by lots of solar flooding onto the grid
</ref> - Power-to-X, storing surplus electricity production in chemical form, e.g. hydrogen
- Green hydrogen production from water during the peak hours of Solar production
- Energy demand management, including:
- Time-of-use pricing (TOU) and real-time pricing
- Smart grid technology
- Electric power transmission from the west where the sun is shining to the east where the sun is low or set
A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated.<ref>"The California Duck Curve Is Real, and Bigger Than Expected". 3 November 2016. Retrieved 10 January 2017.</ref>
Duck curve in California
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The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices.<ref name=":0" /> According to their 2016 study, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 pm to 8 pm period (the "neck" of the duck) have increased to $60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016.<ref name=":1" /> However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $15 per megawatt-hour.<ref name=":1" />[needs update] These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as renewable energy production continues to grow.<ref name=":2" /><ref name="Azemena 2022 2747–2756"/><ref name="caiso2021a">"2021 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment" (PDF). California ISO. 23 May 2021. p. 36. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 May 2021. The growing amount of photovoltaic solar generation that is interconnected to the ISO grid continues to change the ISO's net load profile and creates more challenges and uncertainty for ISO operations. The result is a constantly increasing ramping requirement, significantly more than what has been required from the generat ion fleet in the past, both upward and downward. Furthermore, solar generation does not provide significant power at the hours ending 19:00 to 21:00, which leads to reliance on gas and other non-solar generation after sunset. The continuing decline in dispatchable generation in the ISO as dispatchable units retire is beginning to challenge the ISO system's ability to meet net peak demand after sunset and flexible capacity requirements.
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A crucial part of this curve comes from the net load ("the difference between expected load and anticipated electricity production from the range of renewable energy sources").<ref name=":1" /> In certain times of the year (namely Spring and Summer), the curves create a "belly" appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an "arch" similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name "The Duck Chart.<ref>"EIA Data Reveals California's Real and Growing Duck Curve". Retrieved 1 December 2017.</ref>" This "neck" represents a ramp speed of between 10 and 17 GW in 3 hours (afternoon) in 2020 which has to be supplied by flexible generation.<ref name="caiso2021b">"Final Flexible Capacity Needs Assessment for 2022" (PDF). California ISO. 14 May 2021. pp. 9–10. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 January 2022.</ref> During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity.<ref>"A world turned upside down". The Economist. Retrieved 1 December 2017.</ref> Curtailment impacts the curve.<ref name="caiso2021b"/> Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use.<ref name=":4" /> An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices. As of 2022[update], up to 6 GWh is shifted per day from low price to high price periods.<ref>Murray, Cameron (13 April 2022). "Battery storage load shifting up to 6GWh a day on CAISO grid; operator eyes SoC-linked prices". Energy Storage News. Archived from the original on 29 April 2022.</ref>
